EURJPY – Our Chart of the Day

By Benny Nardino | May 14, 2010

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EURJPY was our main play for today. Primarily because it provided opportunities for greater profits today. The unfortunate thing was that this cross had only one direction today and that was down. We traded it down.

EURJPY - Chart of the Day

Chart of the Day

However, from the chart, the position is still a weakened one. There are still two more waves left on the elliot waves (4 and 5) which we anticipate at pivot level of 112.86 at the moment. At worse, we could see a retracement back to the 110.48 seen two weeks ago.

Details


Prev close 116.04 52 week high 139.21
Last trade 116.6 52 week low 110.48
High 118.72 Low 115.92

Sirius Forex Long-Term Targets


Q1 2010 121.39 Q3 2010 115.30
Q2 2010 130.31 Q4 2010 105.26

GBPJPY will be the currency pair in play for Monday for us. In the U.K., we are expecting the release of Rightmove Housing data at 00:30 GMT. Most GBP pair and crosses are still within the Bollinger band sell zone as it was unable to benefit from an otherwise broad selloff in the dollar.

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GBPUSD Falls on Trade Balance

By Humphrey Bo | May 13, 2010

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London: Pounds sterling on a free fall again as UK’s trade balance fails market expectation. The forex market gave the pound sterling, a bloody nose on every sterling, GBP pair and crosses across board today as report of balance of trades with the rest of the world weakened.

GBPUSD Chart

GBPUSD Fall Continues

This further highlighted the forex market apprehension on the UK economy and the pound sterlings. For example, we traded the GBPJPY cross to 139.40 until trend reversal and then to 135.88. At the time of writing that cross has shed over 360 pips from today’s high. How could this trust be gained back to stop the sterling bleed?

Cable, GBPUSD on the other hand, was hit by the news and it went on a free fall as seen above on the chart to 1.4683. It is great we are having a new Government that has pledged to put a curb on the excessive borrowing. But what is also clear are traders’ lack of confidence on UK economy at present.

In conclusion, the forex market reaction at the moment is an indication of how badly the pounds need a salvation. Immediate action are required to stem this flow before investors start taking flight to other safe haven currencies. That could only exacerbate a deplorable situation.

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UK Budget – Still A Touch And Go

By Benny Nardino | March 24, 2010

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Could today’s UK budget have been a missed opportunity to kick the economy again? The British people were hoping to see the Government finally taking steps to curb her debt excesses but only to be given another budgetary hogwash because of the impending election.

The nation is borrowing almost half a billion every passing day yet Mr. Darling was willing to compromise the national interest for political party’s interests was reckless. In fact what seemed to be a given on the right-hand is taking away by the left. A tactical deception Brown had perfected in his times at No. 11.

To think that the public would receive such an unexplained budget with future cuts was apathetic on Darling’s part. However, it is one the financial markets have already passed its verdict. According to a City insider: “There was a disappointing absence of any measures to say the U.K. is a friendly place to do business. There was tinkering around the edges, with entrepreneurs’ relief to be doubled. None of that will help big multinationals teetering on the edge of relocating some or all of their operations out of the U.K”

Nonetheless, it is now clear that whoever gets into No 10 will have hairy days ahead and this leaves the UK economy hanging in the balance. With the UK currency, pound sterling on its knees what a way to derail confidence further.

What’s even more frightening for UK creditors at the moment is the fear of a hung parliament and thought of a Moody credit rating downgrade from its AAA status.

At worse, let’s hope we’re not creating another Anglo-Greeco economic mismanagement strategy. For a government seeking re-election in a few months, this spells bad news or perhaps they’ve just simply given up trying.

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The issue of global currency has dominated the currency market since the dollar collapsed a year ago. What does this mean in the current economic climate and forex market?

Though the argument seems exciting and appealing with shock value, but building a global currency requires time and supporting global financial institutions. China has less of these infrastructures on their side.

The U.S. dollar’s, (the global currency) hegemony is enshrined all over the world. This global leadership through a network of political and economic alliances can only be in Chinese dreams at the moment.

On the contrary, China has showed heavy savings rate, a strong current account position and a swollen manufacturing sector. What’s more, China has huge work force pool than any nation. The Chinese yuan unlike the dollar, doesn’t have yuan-based international financial structure like the IMF, World Bank, nor are there OPEC nations or major commodity producers pricing their products in yuan. This simple factor is enough to subvert the Chinese global currency idea.

For all its successes, the Chinese economy remains a budding shrub because it’s an export-oriented labor pool mostly catering to the increased profitability of Western companies. Free trade will eventually help China acquire its rightful place among the top powers of the world, but that doesn’t mean that the process will be fast or free of bumps and troubles.

Does this mean China can never dominate the global financial world? Of course not, but we believe the risks of that happening is rather small for the next decades. For example, many of us speculated about the eventual economic dominance of Japan over the West in the 80s, yet the result was in fact the opposite. There are possibilities that China may also have learnt from the economic failures of Japan but when the tide turns in US favor, will China still be pushing the global currency agenda?
Why not take advantage of the market situation trading yuan now?

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Dollar Fall Against Yen

By Benny Nardino | December 17, 2009

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The USD, dollar falls sharply against the yen from 90.25 on overnight trades in Asian/Pacific session. Is this the end of the joy-ride or  another consolidation for further push for tops?

Dollar falls

Dollar falls

In the past couple of weeks, we have seen a nice trending market from the dollar yen after severe pressure from the gold market in the past few years. In spite of these challenges the dollar has held ground within the 84.79 and 101.43 range, channelling down slightly.

The Asian session saw the currency overwhelmed by news that FEDs were scaling back resources put into the market to sterm depression. The yen gained as dollar fall cuts below the psychologically threshold of 90 yen for the second time in two weeks. The pair is currently trading at 89.82 yen, after hitting low of 89.55 this morning, London trading session. Not long ago it was frown at to contemplate the dollar falling  below 100 mark, but today its an optimists dream.

Ironically,  against the euro and pound sterling the dollar did well by holding its grounds raising further concerns about the Euro-zone economic weakness as yesterday’s gains evaporated over night.

However, from our weekly chart we could see a turning tide in favor of the dollar as long-term sentiments indicates a dollar fight-back. If this is sustained in the New Year, further growth could be seen in the euro economy.

Share your opinions by commenting below. Thank you.

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