Sirius Forex Trading Group

Euro Recedes To 40 Pips Range

Benny Nardino — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:45:25 +0000

Euro recedes to 40 pips range amid low volatility. The euro has seen a bearish week as it emerge from last Friday’s stalemate with London. With investors looking for safe haven in other currencies like the dollar and sterling, most traders could say they saw it coming. As the euro has fallen into the range market, could this be a sign of a selling cool-off?

Euro Goes Into Morning Range

The day began with a short selling in the morning trade in London. But risks aversion in the dollar and sterling meant that selling the euro is no longer aviable option for now.

Euro dollar began with the pair falling slightly lower to 1.3003. This has in turn kept the euro, EURUSD just a tick above the benchmark level of 1.3000 and little bit below the pivot at 1.3006.

From the chart on the right, the euro, EURUSD have ranged within 1.3003 and 1.3043 all morning with 40 pips range and thus keeping all good intention traders like us out.

How Long Can Euro Hold This Level?

Having breached the 1.3000 twice this week, the question now is how long can this level hold?

Weeks have passed since EU Leaders were said have been dealing with it. The problem is none of them are really willing to examine their economic structure. They are blaming one another home and away rather than doing something about their sovereign debt.

Take for example Portugal and Ireland. They changed leaders because felt their leaders were not doing enough. What they sniped at their previous leaders for was what they ended up doing.

While EU Leaders expect market to correct itself and feeling indifferent about the truth is, this problem won’t go away while market sentiment remain the same. According to one market expert, “.. the Euro debt crisis is driving investors away from the region..”. This could only mean one thing – euro erosion.

Today, the Euro recedes to 40 pips range of safety and the day is still quite young. What happens when Italian bond goes on sales?

Share your thoughts below.

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USDCHF – Our Chart of The Day

Humphrey Bo — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 14:23:27 +0000

USDCHF is by far our chart of the day. The Swiss central bank, SNB drew a defining line for the franc today in an effort to stem its recent rise. This action sent shock wave through the market which caused the dollar franc, USDCHF to rise by more than 600 pips in the first half an hour of trading. See the USDCHF chart below. [Click Chart for Enlarged view.]

USDCHF Surge on SNB Buy-back Franc News

The Swiss franc has risen to record heights against the euro and the US Dollar in recent months and thus putting hand-brakes on exports and economic growth.

The SNB have made eforts in the past months to boost liquidity in the money market, lower borrowing costs.

All these efforts came to nothing because of depraved Euro-zone debt crisis.

This systemic move today fuelled the fall of franc, CHF against the dollar, USD and the euro, EUR leading to massive movement as seen on the chart.

However, by placing this cap on the francs for the first time in more than thirty years the Swiss National Bank is aiming to substantially sustain the franc weakeness. In an e-mailed statement today, SNB stated that they are prepared to buy back her currency, the franc CHF, in unlimited volume to maintain this position.

How long this strategy could go remain to be seen. For now, long live dollar-franc, USDCHF gains.

If you like this post why not share. Have great day of trading.

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German Factory Order Falls

Humphrey Bo — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 12:06:57 +0000

Factory order fell below par in German . The fallen German factory orders sent tremours through the forex market as traders ponder on Euro zone economy. Is this a sign of the Euro bloc economy slipping back into recession again?

The news of the fallen German factory order sent waves across the markets today and this lit up all the major currencies like Christmas Tree with movements of 100 to 600+ pips in the USDCHF.

Euro Falls On German Factory Order Report

The report indicates that the strongest economy in Europe is not doing as well as market had thought.

The market had expected a -1.4% report which equates to 3.2% fall but the factory orders delivered -2.8%.

Comparing these number to July report of 1.8% saw a rise. And that big differential of 4.6% was enough to cause chaos that tipped euro over the edge.

What was more interesting huge rise in the EURUSD, GBPUSD and most notably the swissy, USDCHF.

How long will this moves hold especially when are weaknesses in the market? The euro has since retrace back 50% of this morning’s gain.

From the US macro economic front, we await the Michigan ISM report this afternoon. With such volatility in the market today let’s brace ourselves.

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UK Job-Seekers Post Big Rise

Benny Nardino — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 08:43:20 +0000

UK job-seekers number posts big rise this morning. Is joblessness fast becoming a career now in the UK as unemployment rises further again?

The number of people claiming jobless benefit posted its largest rise in more over 18 months to July. As the labor market shrinks, we beginning to the effect of a stagnated economy.

UK Jobless Rises

According to The Office for National Statistics, ONS, today’s report saw a significant increase in the number of people claiming UK Job-Seekers Allowance, JSA by 37,100 in July.

This was in fact the biggest single month rise since May 2009 and thus pushing rate rise to 4.9%.

The U.K.’s labor market had previously been relatively resilient to the slowing growth recovery, with the number of unemployed people dropping by 26,000 in the previous three months to May.

However, there is no doubt that today’s news of growing UK job-seekers number, would have dealt a big blow to the Prime Minister David Cameron and Nick Clegg’s coalition government. The question is what happens now? Britain needs to structure her economy again.

For a while we have been told of private sector creating enough jobs. Without tax cuts and relaxed rules, this thought will always be at odds with reality. The UK job-seekers will grow further especially when you consider another 330,000 public sector workers set to lose their jobs over the next four years due to central government cuts.

My question is, “Could the UK riot be used as a barometer to what people are really feeling behind in-doors?” No one really knows how much pain the public are going through on the surface. As UK job-seekers number continue to soar the effect of not having enough is unfolding on our streets. Could this be the reason why many had adopted alien culture of violence on the streets?

You have an opinion? Here’s you chance to have your say.

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GBPUSD Support Collapses

Benny Nardino — Tue, 09 Aug 2011 14:04:23 +0000

GBPUSD support collapses on weaker than expected balance of trade, manufacturing production news. GBPUSD support caved in as videos and news of London’s Riot spreads global. What happens next?

GBPUSD Support Collapses

The day began with positive news from housing market reports and as a result, Cable, GBPUSD rose to 1.6353.

This upward trend soon turned south as the news of manufacturing and trade balance spreads collapsing GBPUSD support for the day.

GBPUSD got the big blow of the day from London riots. The pair dropped sharply as shock-waves of videos of homes and shops being burnt went through already tentative market. That blow was more than enough to tip cable prices to 1.6174 breaking through three GBPUSD support levels.

For sometime now, the British economic strengths have lied too heavily on the service sectors and thus weakening manufacturing. At the moment the numbers are not adding up because of lack of consumer confidence.

People do not feel assured to spend on what they could do without knowing where the next job is coming from. With the numbers posted this year thus far, there are very little hope for any quick recovery from the recession .

Words from the streets are that, lack of jobs and opportunities have been the main reasons for the riot that is fast spreading like bush-fire. It is hard to verify any of these rumours for now. But with your unemployment as high since record began it is not surprising.

However, the question everyone is asking is where do we go from here? Will rioting on London streets and many other major English cities provide solutions? If this is all we have to make the economic situation better, may God help our Queen and her humble subjects.

If you like this post why not share and comment below? Have great day of trading.

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US Unemployment Rises to 9.8%

Benny Nardino — Fri, 03 Dec 2010 13:45:11 +0000

US unemployment rose to 9.8% in November and this was the highest level since April, 2010 the US Labor Department said. Thus raising further doubts about the strength of the US economic recovery.

Unemployment Rise

Last month US private companies could create a mere 39,000 jobs as compared to market expectation of 155,000. This US unemployment increase have been causing panic in the markets today raising fears of further slow down.

There is a notion that the number people unemployed in US stands between 15 and 27 million depending on how you work out your figures.

Effects of US Unemployment Rise

This US unemployment rise can only mean one thing social unrests. In hard time there are crime increase, heavy drinking, abuse on women and children, family tension and many more. This cannot be good tostill see CEOs rewarding themselves for minor efforts. Another effect is that US unemployment has a way driving sentiment across the globe.

In forex trading today, this unemployment rise caused a sharp rise in all dollar related pairs and crosses with the euro dollar, EURUSD taking the lead to 1.3410 gaining over 100 pips. Cable, GBPUSD on the other hand, also clocked over 100 pips in the forex market.

In the equity market, the news also weighed in on the DOW Jones causing a sharp fall, before recovering late in the day to close slightly higher.

Many traders are very concerned about the level of unknowns and the US unemployment. These factors they believe could derail the economic recovery. If these numbers are truly as high as 27 million the effect is better swallowed up.

On the hand, the rise in US unemployment news gave the euro currency and the euro zone economy a big reprieve on her toxic debt. Whilst the fire may seem to been have dowsed, the root cause has still not ben removed yet. The problems with the “PIIGS economy” still wane on the EUR.

Again this poor US unemployment numbers will mount further pressure on the FED for more quantitative easing, QE or quick fixes. The question is how far will this go?

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EURJPY – Our Chart of the Day

Benny Nardino — Fri, 14 May 2010 13:16:27 +0000

EURJPY was our main play for today. Primarily because it provided opportunities for greater profits today. The unfortunate thing was that EURJPY cross had only one direction today and that was down. We traded it down with great gains.

Chart of the Day

However, from the EURJPY chart, the position is still a weakened one.

There are still two more waves left on the Elliot waves (4 and 5) which we anticipate at pivot level of 112.86 at the moment. At worse, we could see an EURJPY retracement back to the 110.48 seen two weeks ago.

Details

Prev close	116.04	52 week high	139.21
Last trade	116.6	52 week low	110.48
High	118.72	Low	115.92

Sirius Forex Long-Term Targets

Q1 2010	121.39		Q3 2010	115.30
Q2 2010	130.31		Q4 2010	105.26

On the contrary, GBPJPY will be the currency pair in play for Monday for us. In the UK, we are expecting the release of Rightmove Housing data at 00:30 GMT. Most GBP pair and crosses are still within the Bollinger band sell zone right now. It was unable to benefit from an otherwise broad selloff in the dollar.

However, on this day EURJPY remain the currency in play.

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GBPUSD Falls on Trade Balance

Humphrey Bo — Thu, 13 May 2010 22:57:49 +0000

GBPUSD falls on trade balance. The pound sterling went on a free fall again as UK’s trade balance fails market expectation.

The forex market gave the pound sterling, a bloody nose on every sterling, GBP pair and crosses across board today as report of trade balance with the rest of the world weakened.

This further highlighted the forex market apprehension on the UK economy and the pound sterlings. For example, we traded the GBPJPY cross to 139.40 until trend reversal and then to 135.88.

At the time of writing that cross has shed over 360 pips from today’s high. How could this trust be gained back to stop the pound sterling, GBPUSD bleed?

Cable, GBPUSD on the other hand, was hit by the news and it went on a free fall as seen above on the chart to 1.4683. It is great we are having a new Government that has pledged to put a curb on the excessive borrowing. But what is also clear are traders’ lack of confidence on UK economy at present.

In conclusion, the forex market reaction to the trade balance report is a great indication of how badly the pounds need a salvation. Immediate action are required to stem this flow before investors start taking flight to other safe haven currencies. That could only make matters worse which would a very bad situation to be in.

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UK Budget – Still A Touch And Go

Benny Nardino — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 17:13:32 +0000

UK budget is still a ‘touch and go’. Could today’s UK budget have been a missed opportunity to kick the economy again? The British public was hoping to see the Government finally taking steps to curb her debt excesses but only to be given another budgetary hogwash because of the impending election.

The nation is spending almost half a billion every passing day yet Mr. Darling was willing to trade the national interests for Labour Party’s which was reckless. In fact what seemed to be a given on the right-hand is taking away by the left. This was a tactics Mr Brown was very good at in his times at No. 11 and it’s being recycled again in the UK budget by Mr. Darling. To think that the public would receive such an unexplained budget with future cuts, was il-conceived.

However, this 2010 UK budget is one the financial markets have already passed its verdict. According to a City insider: “.. there was a disappointing absence of any measures to contain debt..” There was attempts to tinker around the edges, with entrepreneurs relief to be doubled.

None of that will help big firms on the vedge of relocating some or all of their operations out of the UK. The UK budget failed to address that. What is now clear it that, whoever gets into No 10 will have hairy days ahead as the UK economy hangs in the balance. With the pound sterling on its knees the UK budget was another way to derail the hopes of many further.

What’s even more frightening for UK bond holders at the moment is the fear of a hung parliament and thought of credit rating downgrades from its AAA status.

At worse, let’s hope we’re not creating another Anglo-Greeco economic mismanagement strategy. For a government seeking re-election in a few months, this spells bad news or perhaps they’ve just simply given up trying. The UK Budget for 2010 is a testament to that fact.

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Global Currency – Can the Chinese Yuan replace the US Dollar?

John Robinson — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 06:30:48 +0000

Global currency issue have dominated the currency market since the dollar collapsed a year ago. What does this mean in the current economic climate and forex market?

Though the argument seems exciting and appealing with shock value, but building a global currency requires time and supporting global financial institutions. China has less of these infrastructures on their side.

The U.S. dollar’s, (the global currency has hegemony is enshrined all over the world. This global currency leadership through a network of political and economic alliances can only be in Chinese dreams at the moment.

On the contrary, China has showed heavy savings rate, a strong current account position and a swollen manufacturing sector. What’s more, China has huge work force pool than any nation. The Chinese yuan unlike the dollar, doesn’t have yuan-based international financial structure like the IMF, World Bank, nor are there OPEC nations or major commodity producers pricing their products in yuan. This simple factor is enough to subvert the Chinese global currency idea.

For all China’s success, their economy remains a budding shrub. It’s an export oriented labor pool mostly serving the Western companies profitability. Free trade will at last help China acquire its rightful place among the top powers of the world, but that doesn’t mean that the process will be fast or free of bumps and troubles.

What Does This Mean To China Global Currency Ambition?

Does this mean China can never dominate the global financial world? Of course not, but we believe the risks of that happening is rather small for the next decades. For example, many of us speculated about the eventual economic dominance of Japan over the West in the 80s, yet the result was in fact the opposite. For now, global currency is far out of China’s reach.

It may be possible for China to have learnt from the economic failures of Japan but when the tide turns in US favor, will China still be pushing the global currency agenda?

Why not take advantage of the market situation trading yuan now?

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Dollar Fall Against Yen

Benny Nardino — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:15:02 +0000

Dollar fall against yen again. The USD, dollar falls sharply against the yen from 90.25 on overnight trades in Asian/Pacific session. Is this the end of the joy-ride or another consolidation for further push for tops?

In the past couple of weeks, we have seen a nice trending market from the dollar yen. There have been severe pressure from the gold market in the past few years. In spite of these challenges the dollar has held ground within the 84.79 and 101.43 range, channelling down slightly.

Dollar falls

The Asian session saw the currency overwhelmed by news that FEDs were scaling back resources put into the market to sterm depression. The yen gained as dollar fall cuts below the psychologically threshold of 90 yen for the second time in two weeks. The pair is currently trading at 89.82 yen, after hitting low of 89.55 this morning, London trading session. Not long ago it was frown at to contemplate the dollar falling below 100 mark, but today its an optimists dream.

Ironically, against the euro and pound sterling the dollar did well by holding its grounds raising further concerns about the Euro-zone economic weakness as yesterday’s gains whittled over night.

However, from our weekly chart we could see a turning tide in favor of the dollar. The long-term sentiment indicates that the dollar fall could short term. If this is sustained in the New Year, further growth could be seen in the euro economy.

Share your opinions by commenting below. Thank you.

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GBP Free At Last

Rox Sweetman — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:05:40 +0000

GBP free at last. British pound sterling, GBPUSD finally broke out of range that began in last week Thursday trading session. This break caused a buying frenzy this morning. Could this be the move that cause us all to sing, “Free at last, free at last Thank God Almighty..?“

GBP Free At Last

The past five trading sessions have seen windless trading days with very little trend to hold on to. The day began at 1.6245 which later declined to 1.6229.

The morning sentiments began to change as the euro -zone reports began to trickle in causing a spike in the cable, pound sterling, GBPUSD pair. As the day unfold more and more it spelt further weakness for the dollar as current account debts widen.

Nonetheless, the day was saturated with a mixed-bag of news with something for everyone. From a trading standpoint, the pound sterling, GBPUSD market has since broken through the 6400 on the upside. It got most of our traders singing Hallelujah chorus as many made profitable gains from their open positions.

How did you do on the day? Please share your thoughts.

saw a change in

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Choppy Euro Today

Benny Nardino — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:32:21 +0000

Euro, EURUSD choppy trade remains within range today. But what is keeping the boil on Traders, EU politicians and central bankers’s mind ticking? The thought of euro surge and export dwindling.

Choppy Euro

The euro is poised on rising against a weak U.S. dollar and an under valued Chinese yuan.

A high-ranking E.U. envoy is now set to travel to China at the end of next week in a quest to persuade Chinese authorities to let their currency appreciate. Whether the Chinese would heed is another matter. As it is, it favors China’s export.

Trichet will join the party alongside the head of euro-zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker. German economist Reinhard Kudiss summed it up as an “.. act like a tax on exports”.

However, it’s no surprising. In recent weeks implied volatility expectations have dropped considerably from peaks. While this may not have resulted to intraday US Dollar price volatility slowdown but, markets remain extraordinarily choppy on a day-to-day basis as major currencies remain confined to choppy ranges.

Given the exceedingly low 1-week volatility expectations, we suspect that this may continue to be the case through near-term trading. Why not have your say? Use Comment form below.

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Interbank Exchange Rates Today

Benny Nardino — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 10:12:18 +0000

Latest Â Â Previous Â %Chg Â Daily Â Daily Â Â %Chg

Dollar Rates Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2150 GMT Â Â Â Â Â High Â Â Low Â Â Â 12/31

USD/JPY Yen Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 92.43-49 Â 92.30-31 Â +0.14 Â 92.50 Â 92.25 Â Â +2.02

EUR/USD Euro Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.4497-01 Â 1.4486-87 Â +0.08 Â 1.4518 Â 1.4482 Â +3.71

GBP/USD Sterling Â Â Â Â 1.6518-24 Â 1.6490-93 Â +0.17 Â 1.6565 Â 1.6492 Â +12.94

USD/CHF Swiss Franc Â Â Â 1.0459-64 Â 1.0466-69 Â -0.07 Â 1.0472 Â 1.0449 Â -1.97

USD/CAD Canadian Dlr Â Â 1.0778-81 Â 1.0803-08 Â -0.23 Â 1.0797 Â 1.0760 Â -11.40

AUD/USD Australian Dlr Â 0.8592-96 Â 0.8619-24 Â -0.31 Â 0.8660 Â 0.8585 Â +21.48

NZD/USD New Zealand Dlr Â 0.6955-58 Â 0.6958-62 Â -0.04 Â 0.6993 Â 0.6951 Â +19.19

Euro Rates

EUR/JPY Yen Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.04-07 Â 133.69-74 Â +0.26 Â 134.23 Â 133.65 Â +5.84

EUR/GBP Sterling Â Â Â Â 0.8775-79 Â 0.8784-86 Â -0.10 Â 0.8786 Â 0.8760 Â -8.22

EUR/CHF Swiss Franc Â Â Â 1.5165-68 Â 1.5163-66 Â +0.01 Â 1.5172 Â 1.5158 Â +1.56

EUR/CAD Canadian Dlr Â Â 1.5625-32 Â 1.5650-60 Â -0.16 Â 1.5647 Â 1.5610 Â -8.19

EUR/AUD Australian Dlr Â 1.6865-76 Â 1.6794-04 Â +0.42 Â 1.6874 Â 1.6760 Â -14.66

EUR/DKK Danish Krone Â Â 7.4434-36 Â 7.4433-40 Â +.001 Â 7.4441 Â 7.4434 Â +0.01

EUR/NOK Norwegian Krone Â 8.5899-52 Â 8.5714-35 Â +0.22 Â 8.5967 Â 8.5765 Â -11.52

EUR/SEK Swedish Krona Â Â 10.2024-74 10.2006-00 +0.02 Â 10.2188 10.1857 Â -6.63

EUR/CZK Czech Koruna Â Â 25.4740-40 25.4660-60 +0.03 Â 25.4990 25.4620 Â -4.78

EUR/HUF Hungary Forint Â 270.33-56 Â 270.33-67 Â 0.00 Â 271.01 Â 270.15 Â +2.57

EUR/PLN Polish Zloty Â Â 4.0995-15 Â 4.0910-60 Â +0.21 Â 4.1000 Â 4.0820 Â -0.38

Yen Rates

AUD/JPY Australian Dlr Â 79.45-49 Â 79.55-61 Â -0.13 Â 79.99 Â 79.23 Â +25.51

GBP/JPY Sterling Â Â Â Â 152.72-79 Â 152.20-25 Â +0.34 Â 153.01 Â 152.24 Â +15.44

CAD/JPY Canadian Dlr Â Â 85.76-78 Â 85.39-46 Â +0.43 Â 85.90 Â 85.49 Â +15.60

NZD/JPY New Zealand Dlr Â 64.30-34 Â 64.23-28 Â +0.11 Â 64.59 Â 64.16 Â +23.06

Other Dollar Rates

USD/CZK Czech Koruna Â Â 17.558-88 Â 17.578-08 Â -0.11 Â 17.583 Â 17.526 Â -8.14

USD/HUF Hungary Forint Â 186.31-76 Â 186.71-92 Â -0.21 Â 186.84 Â 186.21 Â -1.06

USD/DKK Danish Krone Â Â 5.1336-46 Â 5.1377-92 Â -0.08 Â 5.1398 Â 5.1279 Â -3.56

USD/NOK Norwegian Krone Â 5.9255-75 Â 5.9170-50 Â +0.14 Â 5.9350 Â 5.9140 Â -14.68

USD/PLZ Polish Zloty Â Â 2.8270-00 Â 2.8238-81 Â +0.11 Â 2.8295 Â 2.8116 Â -4.53

USD/RUB Russian Ruble Â Â 31.153-58 Â 31.250-56 Â -0.31 Â 31.383 Â 31.064 Â +2.06

USD/SEK Swedish Krona Â Â 7.0378-93 Â 7.0417-77 Â -0.06 Â 7.0533 Â 7.0240 Â -9.89

USD/EEK Estonia Kroon Â Â 10.7907-29 10.7973-35 -0.06 Â 10.8034 10.7788 Â -3.51

USD/HKD Hong Kong Dlr Â Â 7.7502-04 Â 7.7495-06 Â +0.01 Â 7.7503 Â 7.7502 Â +0.004

USD/MYR Malaysian Ringt Â 3.4925-55 Â 3.5000-40 Â -0.21 Â 3.4950 Â 3.4885 Â +1.23

USD/INR Indian Rupee Â Â 48.4700-00 48.3000-00 +0.35 Â 48.5800 48.2000 Â -0.23

USD/IDR Indones Rupiah Â 9920-930 Â 9985-995 Â -0.65 Â 9935 Â Â 9915 Â Â -8.57

USD/PHP Philippine Peso Â 48.320-40 Â 48.250-00 Â +0.15 Â 48.420 Â 48.220 Â +1.90

USD/SGD Singapore Dlr Â Â 1.4251-58 Â 1.4260-71 Â -0.06 Â 1.4265 Â 1.4234 Â -0.36

USD/KRW S. Korean Won Â Â 1225.8-7.8 1223.0-5.0 +0.23 Â 1228.8 Â 1223.4 Â -2.87

USD/TWD Taiwan Dlr Â Â Â 32.687-00 Â 32.650-90 Â +0.11 Â 32.756 Â 32.657 Â -0.21

USD/THB Thai Baht Â Â Â Â 33.99-05 Â 34.01-05 Â -0.06 Â 34.07 Â 33.93 Â Â -2.07

USD/VND Vietnamese Dong Â 17829.00-00 17826.00-0 +0.02 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +2.00

USD/ZAR S. African Rand Â 7.5418-68 Â 7.5100-00 Â +0.42 Â 7.5458 Â 7.5255 Â -20.11

USD/BRR Brazilian Real Â 1.827-30 Â 1.829-30 Â -0.11 Â Untraded today Â -21.01

USD/MXN Mexican Peso Â Â 13.350-72 Â 13.342-67 Â +0.06 Â 13.360 Â 13.348 Â -2.22

USD/ARS Argentine Peso Â 3.8500-50 Â 3.8500-50 Â 0.00 Â Untraded today Â +11.59

Source: Thomson Reuters