GBP/JPY Blows Out Every Expectation
By Benny Nardino | May 22, 2008
GBP/JPY - created a wonderful ride today. The pounds yen, GBP/JPY presented great easy entries from the early morning setup as highlighted in my earlier post. This pattern usually carry high probability of success if spotted early. Guess what? It did and in fact, it exceeded our expectations by miles.
From the chart here, you could see the exponential rise. We were taken out by our set limit order at set 204.00 . A day like today, you’re seething and want to get greedy by jumpimg right in again. But experience tell me that it is better staying disciplined.
I had an important meeting in the late morning as scheduled only to comeback with the roof taken off by an upward trend. One of our traders jumped back in with 3-lots raking in a further 105 pips. That was great for her confidence. Added to the 82 pips we had in the morning it all makes a great day ticking.
Anyway, we anticipated the GBP.JPY rise to around 204.70 resistance but the market got through the roof and traded to 206.56 resistance. This accounted for some 350 plus trading range - nice.
The rise today was heavily fuelled by the UK macro-economic data. This was also aided when the US Jobless data came in better than expected. See data below:
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.5% -0.2%
4:30am GBP Business Investment q/q (p) -1.4% 0.4% 1.8%
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders -10 -11 -13
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 365K 373K 374K
Taking an overview at the current economic climate, any good news on the economic report is highly deserved when one considers the current interest rates and the pound sterlings in recent weeks.
Have a great day.
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GBP/JPY, Quick-Profit Bullish Setup
By Benny Nardino | May 22, 2008
GBP/JPY has a bullish cup and handle pattern formation in the making on the 20-day and we anticipate a to rise to the 200-day or above in this morning trading session.
This morning we took a 5-lot entry at 203.18. At the moment, the moving average resistances have been broken as you could see on the chart above. We are on course to our profit taking zone of 209.93 which is our targetted 61.8% resistance on the Fibonacci pivot. Our limit order is set to 204.00 in case the fluidity continues thus locking in a few more pips. With the current market position lies a few pips off our target we are quietly confident. Hopefully it won’t be for long.
However, we are on the lookout for a possible 204.25/60 resistance, we are unlikely to wait that long before profit taking because we anticipate consolidation before then.
Have a great day of trading.
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GBP/JPY Pose Double Tops
By Benny Nardino | May 14, 2008
GBP/JPY posses a double tops on intra-day trades. Currently, it is trading with penetration into to 50-day moving average on the 15-min chart.
It won’t be surprising to see further deteriotion pounds sterling if the 203.70 support is broken on the present trend.
For now we are staying out of the market because we can see a slight consolidation around the Fib 23.6% level from yesterday’s sessional low.
On the contrary, if you are going in trade cautiously and have a great day of trading.
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GBP/USD Near Support Level
By Benny Nardino | May 13, 2008
GBP/USD is marching slowly but surely towards support levels of 1.9100/9300 we drew a few months back in January. Many had argued on the possibilities when the pair was still trading at 1.9900. Were you one of the “doubting Thomases”?
We have since written a few articles that support our position on this analysis considering recent data and Bank of England’s present economic stance. Yesterday also saw a significant shift from the MPC people - a rise in interest rate with food prices soaring to record highs. Using this as a yardstick, the Government’s recent measures may take months to alley fears of the economic woes and looming recession in the UK.
For the interim period, cable GBP/USD has to rely on the vulnerability and weakness of other pairs and crossing currencies for any upward tracking climbs. The spike in oil prices has also exacerbated things from many angles.
For now, we still maintain our position. That is anticipating a dripping channel to our support line drawn in the sand - a support of 1.9300 region.
However, we are most likely to see the pair vacillate along the Fibonacci level of 23.6%. This could take weeks and months to playout as eventually. Have a great day.
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EUR/JPY At Crossroads
By Benny Nardino | May 6, 2008
EUR/JPY is currently dating at crossroads wondering which way to go on the mid- and long-term charts. Will it reach for the stars or take to the pits?
In the monthly chart above, the EUR/JPY has developed a wedge over the trendline. Since it’s seasons high of 168.93 in July of 2007, the cross has oscillated between 149.93 - 168.93 trading higher-lows and lower-highs. An indication of a strong consolidation.
From the daily chart above the cross has set itself up for a 4th-wave buying trend. If this happen as the chart indicates we expect to see a short-term rise to the 166.94/167.20 trendline in the next few weeks.
If we experience a buying failure at 162.00 support we may see the market taking a turn for the pits. A possible near-term of 151.80/152.00.
Whatever direction you go, trade cautiously. It’s better to take a little piece than attempt the whole lump that wipes your capital out.
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